How much is a super delegate's vote worth?

The math is pretty shocking.

As of the April 1st, about 13.7 millions Americans have voted in primaries and caucuses. Based on the proportions of these outcomes Barack Obama has won 1,414 pledged delegates and Hillary Clinton: 1,247.

So a total of 2,661 pledged delegates currently represent the votes of about 13.7 million Democrats and Independents. In other words:

One super delegate's vote is as powerful as the vote of... not 100, not 1000... but more than 5,000 average Americans!

To turn that stat around, these 796 flesh-and-blood individuals have the same weight as a city the size of our nation's second largest: Los Angeles (3.8 million). Or a state the size of Oregon (3.7 million).

What is ISDOU?

The objective of this project is to ensure that undecided superdelegates recognize the serious blow-back to the party if the will of tens of millions of voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses is reversed by 796 party insiders.

When we started this project back at the beginning of March, we hoped to build a simple site to not just warn voters of the potential superdelegate disaster, but EMPOWER them to easily send a personalized message to the DNC, and their local delegates outlining concrete steps they pledge to take if superdelegates over rule us.

By the time the convention rolls around, if the race is still undecided and the political environment is right, this small project could help frame the issue in the eyes of voters and send a strong enough message to the party insiders that they start to think twice about disregarding the popular vote.

If Superdelegates Overrule Us is the brain child of:

Bob Hewitt: As a poltical-blogger, Bob first endorsed Obama's candidacy back in Feb of 07. Since then he's canvassed in New Hampshire, designed/distributed t-shirts in Ohio, plastered a train station in Boston with some original stickers and attended every primary watch-party in Manhattan where he lives.

If Superdelegates Overrule Us is the creation of:

Mac Chambers: [blurb]

David Berk: [blurb]

How is the popular vote calculated?

The goal of this project is ensuring that the will of the millions of voters isn't reversed by a handful of party insiders.

Throughout the site we talk about the "popular vote" but the truth is that there is a bit of gray area as to exactly what that number is. We rely on RealClearPolitics.com (a great site, if you haven't checked it out) for our popular vote total. This site does a great vote of displaying all the various permutations out there. Here are our thoughts on these permutations:

Michigan

The Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all its delegates to the national convention because it moved ahead of Feb. 5 without permission. Former Senator John Edwards and Senator Barack Obama withdrew their names from the Democratic ballot because Michigan broke party rules. Hillary remained on the ballot and received 328,151 votes. Meanwhile, 237,762 voters cast their ballot for "uncommitted."

RCP doesn't count these 328,151 votes for Hillary in their principle popular vote tally. Neither do we.

Florida

The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of all its delegates to the national convention because it moved its primary ahead to Jan 29th despite warnings from the party. All major candidates signed a pledge not to campaign in the state.

[Despite the pledge, Hillary was in Florida the night of the primary and "fund raising" in the state the weekend before the vote. Her campaign was also vocal, distorting the DNC ruling and implying to Floridians that Obama was to blame for their disenfranchisement:

Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson - Jan 26th:
"Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear..."]

The Florida result was distorted by the knowledge that voters were not contributing to the selection of the nominee and the lack of campaigning by the candidates who respected the DNC ruling.

RCP doesn't count the Florida results in their principle popular vote tally. Neither do we.

Caucus States

It's important to realize that many states which held a caucus instead of a primary, did not release a "popular vote" total. Obviously these voters voices need to be included in what we consider "the will of the people" As RCP explains:

"Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224."

RCP distinguishes between "popular vote total" and "estimate w/ IA, NV, ME and WA*." We, however, see no reason to exclude these (admittedly estimated) votes in what we consider "the will of the people."

We include these four states in the popular vote tally.

Frequently asked questions

About ISDOU

(1) Who is funding this project?

This project is a completely organic, not-for-profit, voluntary effort by concerned citizens. No one is being paid for their work.

About delegate math

(1) Does the Republican Party have super delegates?

No.

(2) What's an "unpledged delegate"?

This is just another name for the "super delegate."

What is a super delegate?

Winning the Democratic nomination is a matter of collecting more delegates. These delegates ultimately fly out to the convention in Denver and vote for their candidate. Majority wins.

There are two types of delegates though, and this distinction is very important. The first is the "pledged" delegate (there are about 3,253 of these). A candidate is awarded these in proportion to the amount of votes that they get from ordinary Americans in primaries and caucuses across the country. These 3,253 "pledged" delegates reflect the will of the people, the will of the millions of Democratic voters.

The other type is the "super delegate" (there are about 796 of these). These are usually Democratic members of Congress, governors, national committee members or party officials. As CNN point out:

The issue, as MSNBC explains:

"It’s called the Democratic Party, but one aspect of the party’s nominating process is at odds with grass-roots democracy. Voters don’t choose the 842 unpledged “super-delegates” who comprise nearly 40 percent of the number of delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination."

In other words, in a race that's even remotely close, these 796 party insiders can overturn the will of tens of millions of voters. Imagine that, after a solid year of millions of Americans canvasing, donating, caucusing, rallying and deciding for themselves, that the choice of the people could be reversed by a few hundred politicians.

If we...